Official Home Run Derby Predictions

The Midsummer Classic is upon us and included in the All Star week festivities is of course the derby. I’ve been betting on the home run derby since the summer of ‘22 and I’ve never been even close to correct. 

Look at Cal

I remember one year I went with Matt Olson he didn’t get it done, I’ve always been an Olson guy though despite him being on the Braves. Just saw he was in it in 2021 so I guess I wasn’t betting yet but I was rooting for him. Last season I finally bit the bullet and loaded up on Pete. Fucking sucked rooting for him, I deserved what I got. I forget who I bet on in 23, might’ve been Adolis Garcia but in 2022 I was on Schwarber and J Ram and they both lost in the first round. That year was rigged though for Pujols to get past round one. I have done way too much talking I apologize, but the point I’m trying to make is that you should fade what you’re about to read.

This is in order of when they’re batting

Round 1:

James Wood - 22 homeruns

I got Wood to win the whole thing honestly he’s a stud.

stud

Brent Rooker - 22 homeruns

The Phillies should trade for Rooker, they should’ve last trade deadline. I think he’s gonna get the exact same number as James Wood no matter what he gets. Take +280 for an anytime swing off, that just reminded me.

rook

Junior Caminero - 16 homeruns

Junior is gonna get hot at the 1 minute 40 second mark and rip off 8 in a row. Won’t be enough though.

reminder that the rays exist

Oneil Cruz - 19 homeruns

He’s gonna hit the hardest balls of the night but I can actually see him whiffing like 2 or 3 times. Probably not but I don’t know.

piss missile machine

Byron Buxton - 15 homeruns

There’s always 1 guy per year that severely underperforms and this year I think it’ll be Buxton. I’m just used to him being unreliable with all his injuries.

hurt

Jazz Chisholm - 4 homeruns

Not his derby to win.

get outta here Jazz

Cal Raleigh - 20 homeruns

Cal has been the best player in baseball this season and I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t make it to the semis. His dads pitching to him too which always seems to give guys a boost. Remember when Bryce won it in DC? His pops was on the bump.

38

Matt Olson - 18 homeruns

I’m gonna say that the home team's guy misses out on round 2 by one homer. There’s always a chance a guy playing at his home ball park goes off, but with these circumstances of him replacing Acuna it just feels like he was thrown in there. 

Only player in the derby who has been in one before

Semis:

James Wood vs O’neil Cruz

This match up would have some fireworks for sure. I think they both hit 30+ and tie. Then James Wood wins the swing off in dramatic fashion sending him to the championship.

Brent Rooker vs Cal Raleigh

Rooker runs out of gas and Cal wins by 7 homers. Cal vs Wood in the chip.

Championship:

James Wood vs Cal Raleigh

What a tilt this would be: AL MVP candidate who had the best first half a catcher has ever had and a young phenom who gets ass James Wood. I think Cal would go first because he had less round 1 homers, so that makes things interesting. I’m gonna say Wood edges him out by hitting 24 homers, Cal’s got bigger fish to fry this season then winning the HRD. I’m gonna say Cal goes for 22 in the chip.

Remember to fade these.